What if? The Social Infrastructure Missing from the Risk Map
Nathalie Ballan, The Equator Company
For decades, we’ve been asking consumers what they want. We conduct surveys, segment the market, and gauge intentions—and the answers are always the same: people say they’re concerned and willing to change, but when it comes time to buy, they base their decisions on price, habit, and whatever’s readily available. The gap between what people say and what they do has become a cliché.
On November 24, the 2nd GRACE Congress will examine the invisible infrastructure of sustainability.
At the roundtable discussion “Shifting Consumer Expectations: Competing in a World of Living Systems”, let's discuss how consumer expectations have evolved. I propose shifting the focus to what has already been decided before the consumer reaches the shelf, the cafeteria, or the online store: the invisible infrastructure of consumption.
What the data shows
Portuguese concern about the climate cuts across society. In the 2025 Eurobarometer, 90% consider climate change to be a serious problem (EU: 85%), 89% support climate neutrality by 2050 (EU: 81%), and 86% believe that the cost of the damage exceeds the cost of investing in the transition (EU: 77%). Fifty-nine percent feel exposed to environmental and climate risks, compared to the European average of 38%.
When asked to identify the world’s most serious problems, the Portuguese cite poverty, hunger, and water scarcity (68%, compared to 50% in the EU) and the economic situation (64%, compared to 47%). Climate change comes in at 46%, in line with the European average.
Declared action lags far behind declared concern. The proportion of Portuguese people who say they have done something for the climate in the past six months has fallen by 11 percentage points since 2023, to 57 percent—one of the sharpest declines in the EU. Actions that require spending money or changing habits are rare: 5% say they buy and eat less meat (EU: 25%), and 10% regularly use alternatives to driving (EU: 26%).
Price is a major factor. In an ECB survey conducted in April 2026, more than 70% of Portuguese consumers said they had shopped on platforms such as Temu or Shein, with Greece and Spain leading the way in the eurozone. Price and variety are the main reasons, and use is more frequent among low- and middle-income households. In the same survey, nearly half of eurozone consumers had never shopped on these platforms, citing concerns about quality and trust, the environmental impact of shipping and packaging, and a preference for European and local products.
All of these figures reflect what people report, and even there, the gap is evident. They reveal two groups of consumers, largely separated by income: one for whom price is the deciding factor, and another for whom quality, origin, and production standards matter.
The rule that exists and the one that isn't visible
A study published in *Nature Climate Change* in 2024, which surveyed nearly 130,000 people in 125 countries in 2021 and 2022, helps shed light on this gap. Eighty-nine percent of people are calling on their governments to take more action, 86% support climate-friendly social norms, and 69% would be willing to contribute 1% of their income. These same people estimate that only 43% of others would do the same.
The authors discuss misperceived social norms: in every country, people underestimate others’ willingness to act, and those who underestimate it tend to be less willing to contribute. They therefore propose raising awareness of the support that already exists. The interpretation I propose goes one step further. A social norm has two sides. There is what we believe should be done, and this is widely shared. And there is what we see others doing, which remains largely invisible. The ability to follow the norm is, moreover, unequal and depends on income.
A hypothesis: the decision is made before consumption
Few people consider the impact of what they buy at the moment of purchase. Sustainable choices, therefore, depend largely on what happens upstream: on what companies decide to produce, select, serve, and communicate. When the most sustainable option is the standard, available, and accessible choice—whether in the product lineup, on the menu, on the packaging, or in public spaces—the company spares the consumer the need for additional effort and makes visible a practice that most people already approve of. The norm gains visibility through what is offered, rather than through communication. This is the invisible infrastructure of consumption.
If the hypothesis is correct, there are three consequences to discuss.
The first one is from responsibility. Those who decide what reaches the public also determine the pace of the transition.
The second one is from trust. In the 28 countries covered by the 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer—which does not include Portugal—businesses are the most trusted institution (64%), ahead of NGOs (58%), the media (54%), and governments (53%). The same study shows that trust levels vary significantly depending on income: the index stands at 50 among the lowest-income groups and 65 among the highest-income groups. On the corporate side, a 2020 European Commission study concluded that more than half of the environmental claims analyzed (53%) were vague, misleading, or unfounded. Directive (EU) 2024/825 has been in effect since September 27, 2026, prohibiting generic environmental claims without evidence of recognized performance. Trust now rests primarily on what companies decide before they communicate.
The third one is from competitiveness. 88% of Portuguese people believe that taking action on climate change will drive innovation and make European companies more competitive (EU: 77%). At the same time, the ECB concludes that the demand for low-cost goods is deeply ingrained in the behavior of eurozone consumers and acknowledges that this results in greater competitive pressure on the European retail sector. Competitiveness appears to be playing out on four fronts:
• in terms of cost, where efficiency in energy, materials, and waste reduction lowers expenses;
• access to capital and markets, where sustainability has become a prerequisite for entry;
• in differentiation, among those who choose based on quality, origin, and production standards;
• and on the whims of nature itself, where water availability, soil health, and climate determine what can be produced and at what cost.
From this perspective, sustainability tends to become a prerequisite for companies that are subject to public scrutiny and evaluated by banks and investors. It remains to be seen what they do beyond this minimum and what risks they are willing to take: moving faster than consumers are willing to pay for, making claims they cannot prove, or falling behind as new standards take hold.
On November 24
We’ll be putting this hypothesis to the test at 4:15 p.m. at the Lisbon Congress Center, with Eduardo Vasconcelos (Bel Portugal), Gonçalo Lobo Xavier (APED), Jennifer Motles (Philip Morris International), José Luís Moreira da Silva (Esporão), Joaquim Cabaço (Trivalor), and Philippe Infante (JCDecaux). These six organizations from different sectors will address the same questions: what they decide before the consumer makes a choice, based on what criteria, and what risks are involved.
